Thursday night, 8:15 p.m. ET, on Prime Video: the Buffalo Bills open the new Highmark Stadium for its first regular-season game, and the Detroit Lions are the guests of honor. Both teams are 1-0. Both survived Week 1 scares. And one of them gets to play spoiler on the most anticipated night in Orchard Park in years.
The occasion
Let’s start with what this night means. The ribbon was cut in June, the preseason gave us a taste, but Thursday is the real thing: the first regular-season game in the $2.1 billion building, under the lights, on national television. Bills Mafia has been waiting for this for years, and you can bet that canopy is going to trap every decibel.
There’s a nice symmetry to the opponent, too. Bills founder Ralph C. Wilson Jr. was once part of Detroit’s ownership group back in the 1950s, and these teams have played some classics lately — Buffalo won the last two meetings, both on the road, including that 2022 Thanksgiving thriller at Ford Field that ended with Tyler Bass drilling the game-winner. Detroit remembers.
The Bills roll in at 1-0
Sunday’s 36-31 win in Houston was a statement, even if it was a messy one. Eight lead changes. A 96-yard game-winning drive starting from Buffalo’s own 4-yard line with 1:41 left. Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things: 334 passing yards, two touchdowns through the air, two more on the ground — the 80th and 81st rushing scores of his career.
The new toys are already producing. DJ Moore went for 100 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut, looking every bit like the outside weapon this offense has been missing. Dalton Kincaid was uncoverable at times with five catches for 130 yards. And the offensive line — the same group that gave up eight sacks in Houston a year ago — kept Allen clean enough to cook.
The concern is the same one we’ve had: the defense gave up 31 points and let David Montgomery find the end zone three times. New defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s unit made the one play that mattered — Greg Rousseau’s strip-sack of C.J. Stroud in the final seconds — but 31 points is 31 points.
The Lions survived, barely
Detroit needed overtime and a missed Saints two-point conversion to escape Ford Field with a 31-30 win. The Lions blew a 21-0 lead, which will have Dan Campbell’s blood pressure up, but the stars were stars: Jahmyr Gibbs ran wild for 156 yards and two scores on 29 carries, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 10 balls for 67 yards and two touchdowns including the 4-yard OT winner, and Aidan Hutchinson piled up two sacks and four quarterback hits.
That pass rush is the thing to watch. Detroit sacked Tyler Shough five times and, per PFF, generated 27 pressures. That’s the group going up against a Buffalo offensive line that just had its best game in a year. Something has to give.
Detroit did lose starting left guard Christian Mahogany to a knee injury in the opener, which matters against Buffalo’s interior rush.
Matchups that decide it
Allen vs. the Lions’ pass rush. Hutchinson is a game-wrecker, and Buffalo’s tackles need to repeat the Houston performance, not last year’s.
Bills run defense vs. Jahmyr Gibbs. Buffalo’s run D graded out poorly against Montgomery’s big plays. Gibbs is faster and more explosive than anyone they faced Sunday.
The short week. Both teams played hard-fought Sunday games and now turn around on three days’ rest. Depth and coaching adjustments matter more than usual — advantage to the home team sleeping in its own beds.
The building. It’s a cliché until you’re in it. A brand-new stadium, a Thursday night crowd, the first real game — that’s worth something.
The pick
The Lions are legit, and this has shootout written all over it. But it’s the home opener in a new building, Allen is playing at an MVP level, and the Bills’ offense has too many answers right now. Detroit keeps it close, Buffalo makes the last play — again.
Bills 30, Lions 27.